Greek Election Results

[TonyKath]

Polling stations closed 40 minutes ago.  Exit [NB !] polls a bit varied: Syriza 35.5 - 39.5%, ND 23 - 27%; The River and GD equal third on 6.4 - 8%.

So it looks like a big victory for Syriza between 8 and 16% over ND.  Quite remarkable.  One poll even gives Syriza potentially 158 seats.

Live coverage on the BBC site at:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-30975663

Tony

[TonyKath]

Latest exit polls suggest a narrowing gap - Syriza:ND as 36/38%:26/38% with ND hinting at conceding defeat.  The beeb shows an ND supporter:



Tony

[Maik]

Pic of an ancient Greek?

[TonyKath]

Pic of an ancient Greek?

A very ancient and p*ssed off Greek, I would say.

Official estimates give Syriza 36.5% of the vote and 149-151 seats.  Samaras looks about to concede defeat.

Tony

[TonyKath]

All over now bar the shouting - of which I suspect there will be a great deal while the coalition partner gets sorted out.  Official result now giving Syriza 36% and 149 seats. 

http://ekloges.ypes.gr/current/v/public/index.html?lang=en#{%22cls%22:%22level%22,%22params%22:{%22level%22:%22epik%22,%22id%22:1}}

Follow the drop down boxes to get to the electoral districtrs/wards e.g Kefalinia/Kefalonia/Elios-Pronnoi for Katelios-Poros area.

Prime Minister Tsipras speaking now in front of the Vouli:



 

"The troika is over for Greece."

Quite a night - see you all in the morning! 

Tony

[Bluenose]

Well done 'Mr Paxman' good work ! An ouzo or two may be in order.

[Jolly Roger]

Election results by region.

[Bobby]

Without sounding thick, what will this result mean for Greece?

[Maik]

I don't think anyone knows, IMO it will depend on deals done with other parties and with the EU. Potentially the result might have effects in other EU countries under the austerity screw.

Samaras in opposition took a totally different stance to Samaras in power and, prior to election, was not very popular in the EU's corridors of power. Maybe history will repeat itself, maybe not.

 

[TonyKath]

A governing coalition has now been formed between Syriza and the Independent Greeks (ANEL) who came 6th in the poll with 4.75% of the vote and 13 seats.  The leader of ANEL Panos Kammenos, met with Alexis Tsipras for about 50 minutes in the Syriza offices and emerged at about 0940 GMT saying "From this moment Greece has a government".  As the leader of one of Greece's smallest parties launched into Government perhaps he was entitled to a a theatrical gesture!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30981950
http://www.tanea.gr/news/politics/article/5202502/to-prwi-ths-deyteras-synanthsh-tsipra-kammenoy/ (In Greek)

I really didn't think Tsipras would want ANEL despite their agreement on anti-austerity, given ANEL's position on immigration and rampant nationalism (e.g. "Macedonia is one", i.e. Greek and its call for Turkish troops to leave Cyprus, according to their 2015 manifesto).  The nature of Syriza's very left wing internal coalition makes that seems pretty surprising.  However with the speed of the agreement this morning it must have been sewn up in advance and ANEL must have given up a lot to get a foothold.  How does this square with Tsipras' declaration in his acceptance speech last night of a "break with the Establishment"?

Tony

[Maik]

Well, Syriza is an "alliance of Euro-communists, socialists, Maoists, Trotskyists and greens – since united into a single force" but these two are very strange bedfellows (if not entirely unexpected).

Just wondering when the differences between all these alliances will start to show.

In answer to Bobby: I think the hope among the electorate is that *now* austerity will end and prosperity will start. I don't see it happening that quickly (if at all). JMO.

[TonyKath]

Without sounding thick, what will this result mean for Greece?

Good question, being asked on the front pages of newspapers across Europe this morning, according to Ta Nea, the Greek daily.  11 million Greeks, 11 million answers.  The only Greek I am in touch with says "Wait and see, a lot of us are worried about such a left wing party in government..."  I think it shows that a very large number of Greeks are so utterly worn down by what Tsipras refers to as the "vicious circle of austerity" with no realistic prospect of improvement as long as external forces control the Greek economy that they will take what is in effect [Edit:] a bit of a a huge leap in the dark.  That plus the outrage that Greece has "received" €240 billion of bailout money with virtually all of it paying off the banks and next to nothing going into the pockets of ordinary Greeks.

So what will happen??? At worst the rich will cause a run on the banks as they shift their dosh to Switzerland - though a lot already have, apparently - leaving none for paying the increases in public sector wages and pensions promised by Syriza  leading to a Grexit and the reappearance of the tanks outside the Polytechnic as in previous Greek political crises over the last 100 odd years.  At best the new government will bypass the troika and parley directly with European governments who will call an international debt conference which will reluctantly agree an orderly write down of Greek debts without austerity conditions, neo-Keynsian reflation based on government subsidies will kick-start an economic upturn and all will be well.  In reality my guess is a bit of the former and a fair bit of chaos but with Greece staying in the Euro and eventually politics as usual, well for Greece that is!

Tony

[Jolly Roger]

Without sounding thick, what will this result mean for Greece?

The euro is a flawed currency, because different countries have different GDP and need different interest rates to manage their economies. Looking back in history, Greece and other other countries were dragged into the Eurozone, even though they did not meet the qualifying criteria. What Greece really needs, is to devalue its' currency. It cannot do this of course, but perhaps should have pulled out of the euro at the start of the economic crisis and allow the drachma to find its' value. This would have meant a very hard time for the Greeks as imports would have become very expensive. But, it would allow investment to pour into the country and they would by now, be seeing light at the end of the tunnel.
Having taken on massive debts over the last few years, the stakes are much higher.
I don't see how Syriza can deliver the promises it has made.
I don't really think that the Troika will be in any mood to renegotiate.
So it might come down to how much of a gambler Tsipras is! Will he be prepared to take Greece out of the Eurozone. If he does, it will cause a lot of pain for the Greeks and cause chaos in the money markets of Europe.
There is no easy way, that's for sure.

[HiFi]

There is a general feeling that the Greek people want to stay in the Euro.
If Syriza can deliver on this whilst renegotiating and reforming (with the Spanish equivalent waiting in the wings) they could smash the other current political parties for a generation (by far more than yesterday).
If they simply deliver more pain (even in the short term) their party will be as big as PASOK in far less than a generation.

[U4ea]

I agree with roger that the Euro is a flawed currency, and with the reasons he gives. There is however another reason. The only hope for countries within a Currency Union long term is if they have similar taxation systems.  For the Euro to work long term VAT rates and VAT coverage would have to be the same, and taxation on, for example Tobacco and alcohol would have to be equalised. This would mean an almost complete loss of sovereignty for the Countries involved, and though it might be a pipedream of the "great and the good" in Brussels, I can't see it happening and so the Euro is eventually doomed.

On another forum someone posted a link to a winning submission for a Wolfson Prize for Economics. (Apparently it's very prestigeous!  It's a long read (189 pages!) but discusses in great detail a possible pathway for a Greek exit from the Euro.  https://www.capitaleconomics.com/data/pdf/wolfson-prize-submission.pdf

[Jolly Roger]

On another forum someone posted a link to a winning submission for a Wolfson Prize for Economics. (Apparently it's very prestigeous!  It's a long read (189 pages!) but discusses in great detail a possible pathway for a Greek exit from the Euro.  https://www.capitaleconomics.com/data/pdf/wolfson-prize-submission.pdf

I do not have the time to read this, but the conclusion on page 86 is worth reading. Interesting that they use the drachma as an example!

[HiFi]

On day one the government are refusing to talk to / liaise with the troika as an unelected, undemocratic body.
They've got a point.

[Aristarches]

Syriza will follow the usual line of all politicians:  In opposition promise everything, when in power deliver nothing.  Whatever happens in the future will be the fault of the Troika and their running dogs in ND.  Then there will be another election and a different bunch of tossers will get in.